Seeking promising green growth development paths: Adaptive foresight process towards sustainability in Laos

The recently published FFRC e-book “Futures Horizon to Sustainability Challenges of the Lao PDR 2050. Adaptive Foresight Thinking and New Futures Perspectives to Energy and Natural Resource Planning in the Lao People´s Democratic Republic” by J. Kaivo-oja, S. Jusi, J. Luukkanen, J. Panula-Ontto and K. Kouphokham focuses on energy and natural resource planning in Laos. The book presents some futures oriented analyses and discusses key long-run planning challenges of Laos´s energy economy and natural resource use. In the e-book these questions are linked to the Adaptive Foresight methodology, which have been used as general framework in interactive and participative FFRC’s Mekong projects and has found to have a high potential to help sector ministries and agencies to collaborate and integrate many planning activities in Laos. Co-operative practices and participative workshops of public administration are helpful for many experts and public agencies in Laos. 

Economic development of Laos is based on resource-based production, fuelled by hydropower development for energy exports and mining, while about 90% of rural population lives on farming and resources provided by rivers and forests. The Laotian natural resources governance and development faces major challenges in the future as hydropower and mining development are increasing fast, and climate change, population growth and urbanization are on the future horizon. These developments will have major implications for the Laotian economy, people’s livelihoods, and the environment. The e-book provides updated and future oriented data on different sectors - economy, energy and natural resources to better correspond to these continuously changing and complex management contexts in Laos.

The e-book familiarizes the reader with major planning issues related to key trends, urbanization, demographic change, industrialization and capacity development of Laos. The book holds interest for all those who are keen to know about the management of energy, economy and natural resources and key planning challenges in Laos. The extensive analyses and scientific data of the eBook can provide policymakers, development practitioners and the research community in Laos and even in the wider region valuable data and guidance to support planning and policy- and decision-making in order to manage economic development and natural resources in a sustainable and effective way.

Sari Jusi & Jari Kaivo-oja
Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics, University of Turku

SEMINAR: CONTESTED FUTURES IN THE MEKONG REGION

Prior to FFRC annual conference, climate change mitigation and adaptation, renewable energy production and Finland’s role in the Mekong region were discussed with local researchers and Finnish experts in a seminar organized by the FFRC, Development studies at the University of Helsinki and Siemenpuu Foundation on June 9^th 2014. The event gathered a wide audience of NGO and private sector representatives, universities and development policy officials. One of the key topics on the agenda was possible benefit sharing schemes and possibilities in the context of hydropower development and social impacts to locals in the region.

The seminar was opened by research director Jyrki Luukkanen, who gave a compact insight into the recent developments in the region with Laos and Cambodia under focus. Even though still among the LDC’s, both are developing rapidly with massive needs for more intensive energy production.  Luukkanen argued that whilst the amount of investments is growing, funds are not used for national social development, such as education. The balance of economic growth with positive development impacts to the poor while protecting the environment is yet to achieve.

Ms. Dany Va from RUPP, Cambodia.

                             The opening presentation was followed by Dr. Louis Lebel, director at the Unit for Social and Environmental Research (USER) at University of Chiang Mai, Thailand. Dr. Lebel presented a case study from Sirikit Dam, Thailand, to demonstrate several framings of benefit sharing schemes that should initially mitigate the negative impacts of hydropower developments. The idea of benefit sharing is that often the profit of such projects does not trickle down to locals who, inevitably, need to deal with the negative impacts of dams, or the environment and local biodiversity that are degraded because of logging, distraction in ecosystems and sedimentation. Negative social impacts would be loss of livelihoods, loss of land and loss of social networks, which are often not adequately compensated.  Dr. Lebel argued that whilst more benefit sharing programs are needed and they can contribute significant wealth to locals and protect the environment, they need to be properly planned and carried out.

                             Cambodian researchers from Royal University of Phnom Penh (RUPP) Ms. Dany Va and Mr. Try Thuon gave their findings on local research capacity related to climate change, and more insights on benefit sharing opportunities and its suggested focus. Ms. Va pointed out that local institutions and universities lack funding, capacity and crosscutting coordination, and climate change related research in Cambodia is often donor driven and thus not empowering from within. Mr. Thuon suggested a tool to measure which benefit sharing method would be most suitable in each case, underlining the fact while there is now an interest to apply them in Cambodia, not all schemes work in every context. However, there is an undeniable demand to allocate profits back to the affected people.

                             Timo Kuronen and Liisa Uimonen from Siemenpuu Foundation focused on the controversial role of mainstream Mekong dams and Finland’s indirect role in such developments, highlighting the case with Xayaburi dam and Pöyry’s consultation. The case did leave a stain on Pöyry’s reputation, but has not prevented it from being involved with new hydropower projects in the region.

How to avoid trade-offs between Finnish development
policy and business in the Mekong region?

                             The Pöyry case was followed by a closing panel with Maria Notley, Ministry for Foreign Affairs; Timo Räsänen, Aalto University; Otto Bruun, Siemenpuu Foundation and Ms. Dany Va. The complex situation with diminishing ODA, rapid growth, prevailing inequality and climate change seem to create a platform that is impossible to enter from only one point of view. While providing the access to energy and electricity that will promote growth even further, the countries easily fail to address the poor and marginalized who would need socially sustainable development benefits the most. Questions on Finland’s foreign policy and funding allocations in the Mekong, regions future and hydropower developments provoked several comments also from the audience, and thus the seminar run a bit overtime. Ms. Va pointed out that developing countries such as Cambodia should prefer quality over quantity when it comes to growth, and this could easily work as a guideline in tackling many other development issues too. 

Sari Jusi's public defence of her doctoral thesis

Finland Futures Research Centre's Sari Jusi defended her PhD "Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) Approach in Water Governance in Lao PDR: Cases of Hydropower and Irrigation" at the Univeristy of Tampere last Friday 19th of April 2013. A permanent address to access the publication is http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-951-44-9097-2. 

Congratulations Sari!!

Sari listening to comments from the examiner Tapio Katko.

This is what the PhD looks like in print.

Sustainable Energy Development Seminar

Vientiane Times article on Sustainable Energy Development Seminar, 11.12.2012

On Friday December 7 the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) of Laos co-hosted a seminar on Sustainable Energy Development at Lao Plaza together with Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC), Energy and Environment Partnership (EEP) Mekong, Embassy of Finland and Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).
The purpose of the seminar was to disseminate the project results of the FFRC’s and MEM’s INES project, as well as the results of a JICA funded project with MEM, which was also on energy planning. The projects both dealt with sustainable energy planning but from different perspectives, using different types of data (bottom-up vs. top-down). In addition, the purpose of the seminar was also to discuss energy planning and the energy sector donor coordination and future needs.
Among the participants were all the 17 provincial heads of MEM as well as representatives of other ministries and energy sector donors and some other energy sector organizations based in Laos.

A unique public discussion held in Laos on the mainstream dams

In October 18^th, 2012 a round table discussion on mainstream dams took place in Vientiane at the French Centre. The event was part of the 9th Asia EuropePeople’s Forum. The objective of the session was to discuss the institutional processes related to the decisions on the mainstream dams. The organisers of the event were HELVETAS Laos, Mekong Energy and Ecology Network (MEE Net), Siemenpuu Foundation and Asia-Pacific Network on Food Sovereignty (APNFS). Around 65 people attend the event.

The panellists around the table were:

• H.E. Mr. Touch Seang Tana, Chairman, Commission for Mekong River Dolphin Conservation & Eco-tourism, Cambodia
• H.E. Viraphone Viravong, Vice-Minister, Ministry of Energy and Mines, Lao P.D.R (Head of delegation in Xayaburi consultation)
• Mrs. Pakawan Chufamanee, Director of Mekong Management Bureau, Department of Water Resources, Thailand
• Dr. Dao Trong Tu, Head, Vietnam Union of Science and Technology (VUSTA)
• Mr. Hans Guttman, CEO, Mekong River Commission Secretariat
• Mr. Rick Switzer, Regional Environment, Science, Technology and Health (ESTH) Hub Chief for East and Southeast AsiaUS Embassy to Thailand
• Mr. Witoon Permpongsacharoen, Director, Mekong Energy and Ecology Network
• Ms. Lam Thi Thu Suu, Coordinator of Vietnam Rivers Network
• Samuel Martin from HELVETAS Laos acted as the moderator.

There haven’t been many open public discussions in Laos on the Xayaburi project and other possible mainstream dams so the session was very unique. The panelists represented well the spectrum of different stakeholders: government officials, civil society and development partners. The discussion was constructive and dialogue took place in good spirit. It became clear that there are still differing views among the member countries of Mekong River Commission (MRC) whether the consultation process (Procedures for Notification, Prior Consultation and Agreement, PNPCA) on the first mainstream dam, Xayaburi in Laos, has been completed or not. Vice Minister Viraphone considered that it has been completed whereas representatives from Vietnam and Cambodia viewed that consensus has not been reached yet. Several panelists and participants raised concerns on the knowledge gaps of the impacts of the dam and on the potential unequal distribution of costs and benefits. This would require further impact assessments and evaluation on alternatives. H.E. Viraphone pointed out that from official Lao perspective there is enough data and Laos should have the right to develop its water resources. H.E. Touch Sean Tana from Cambodia suggested that instead of further data there should be a security fund established by the project developer – so in case of negative impacts these could be compensated from the security fund. Thailand’s representative, Mrs. Pakawan Chufamanee, highlighted the question of whether 6 months for the PNPCA is enough and that more time would make the process better and allow also wider participation in the process. Development partners and MRC were asked to take a more active role in fostering the consensus building. USAID representative emphasized the sovereignty of the countries to make decisions and also the importance to do it based on the best scientific data available. He also suggested that from his personal view more important than the legal interpretation is the spirit of the Mekong Agreement on the importance of building consensus on decisions with major transboundary implications.  Hans Guttman, CEO of Mekong River Commission, highlighted that MRC does not have an arbitrary role in case there are disagreements in interpreting the results of processes like the PNPCA.

The key recommendations given by different stakeholders during the discussion included:

• More open dialogue and more participation was recommended for the PNPCA and processes of decision-making on mainstream dams
• The role of CSOs in the PNPCA process should be increased
• Some panelists emphasized the importance of precautionary principle and also recommended ‘time out’ for the first mainstream dam until there is more information available on its impacts
• Lao representatives asked for better cooperation spirit in the MRC consultation processes
• In possible future PNPCA processes the consultation should be started well before the construction of the dam – otherwise possibilities to openly assess the project are limited as developer has already invested considerable money for the project
• Most of the panelists agreed that 6 months for the PNPCA process is too short a time
• The 1995 Mekong Agreement and the procedures of PNPCA leave a lot of room for interpretation – suggestions were made to limit the chance of differing interpretations
• To consider whether there could be a security fund from the dam developer side to compensate for any negative impacts
• There is a need to consider how concerns and needs of affected communities could be better reflected in the decision making processes
• A joint visit of Lao government and civil society representative was suggested to the site of Xayaburi and to the resettled villages

Vientiane Times 18/09/2012

5th trainings in the INES project in Vientiane 17.-19.9.2012 at the Ministry of Energy and Mines.

Open and transparent energy sector dialogue

On September 4 the Swiss organization Helvetas co-hosted together with the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) a seminar in Vientiane which purpose was to initiate an open and transparent dialogue between the Government of Laos (GoL), civil society organization (CSOs) and development partners on power sector development. Until now CSOs, and especially local non-profit associations (NPAs), have been largely excluded from the energy sector policy dialogue. Since CSOs work with communities affected by power sector development, they could play an important role as serving as a link between the local communities and policy makers and donors. Similar seminars have previously been successfully organized to discuss land issues between the government and CSOs. In power sector this was the first time. 

A large number of both national and international organizations based in Laos participated and discussed the issues related to power sector development. The aim of the seminar was not necessarily to oppose the hydropower development per se, but more so question HOW it is done in Laos. Many of the main concerns of the CSOs were related to Environmental and Social Impact Assessments (ESIA), the lack of information in the ESIA process, the project scope of the ESIAs (that is, spatial and temporal borders of the ESIAs), lack of public consultation, inefficient monitoring committees (to monitor project impacts), as well as resettlement and compensation issues. Concerns about the Xayabury dam were expressed too. After the losses, would the Lao people benefit from it at all or would the investors be the only winners in the end? 

Director General of the Department of Energy Planning and Policy, Dr. Daovong Phonekeo, represented the ministry at the seminar. In addition, also other central as well as provincial level government officials participated in the seminar. Dr. Daovong gave a presentation about GoL’s energy sector policy and plans. All the questions and concerns were also answered and he told for instance that the information sharing in the impact assessment process should and will improve. He also encouraged people to report inefficient monitoring committees to the central level MEM. The GoL emphasize the role of energy sector in the national development plan. Energy sector has, according to GoL, also other than monetary benefits such as reduced CO2 emissions, not only in Laos but in the Greater Mekong Subregion as a whole (hydropower from Laos saves 5 million TOE of fossil fuels in Laos and in the neighbouring countries where energy will be exported). In addition, the dams provide flood control, recreation and water for agriculture. 

A number of other issues were also discussed during the seminar. The seminar was a sign of some positive development were power sector issues, also sensitive ones, could be discussed more openly. Greater public participation is necessary in order to let the Lao people decide how they want to develop their country.

MODESPO training session in Finland

The third MODESPO training session took place in Finland between the 20th and 30th of August. A group of eight teachers and lecturers from the ITC (Institute of Technology of Cambodia) arrived to Helsinki-Vantaa airport on a cool +14C Sunday afternoon, very typical for the Finnish summer. 

The first week of the visit consisted mainly of lectures by different experts of TUT (Tampere University of Technology) on different kinds of renewable energy technologies, transmission grids and the kind. The ITC staff also got to see many of TUT’s fancy research equipment, among all the ‘regular’ testing and research equipment at the university. The first week also included a day visit to the summer seminar of the Doctoral Program of Electrical Energy Engineering (DPEEE), which is a Finnish national doctoral program organised in collaboration with a number of research institutes and educational units. The summer seminar was held in Murikka, which is located an hour north from Tampere right by a lake called Näsijärvi. 

After a week of very interesting lectures (really, most of them were interesting) the second week was reserved for various site visits. On Monday we drove to Lahti where we visited a Lahti Energy’s Kymijärvi II power plant. It is presumably the first gasification power plant in the world to “efficiently generate electricity and district heat from Solid Recovered Fuel (SRF)”. The raw material of the SRF is energy-containing waste. At the plant the SRF is gasified and then the gas is purified. The resulting clean ecogas is combusted in an ordinary natural gas boiler. After a presentation of the plant and a tour around its facilities we headed for Energon – a renewable energy research facility funded for the most part by Lahti Science and Business Park and the EU – where we had a close look at different biofuel testing equipment. 

Tuesday was spent in Tampere with visits to Demola – an open innovation platform for students and companies, Moreenia – centre for urban environment, and the Tampere power utility. On the final day of the site visits we went to western Finland to have a look at a wind power park and a biopower plant of Porin Prosessivoima Oy, both located in Pori.  On our way home we did a quick visit to the visitor centre of Olkiluoto nuclear power plant, not renewable energy, but an interesting site nonetheless. 

All in all the third training period turned out to be quite successful. The Cambodian delegation headed back home with many new experiences and knowledge acquired on the latest developments in renewable energies. The Finnish experts were also left with a number of insights and a broader viewpoint to their own field of expertise.