COOL dissemination workshop in Phnom Penh, 28 Feb 2012

A research project Adequacy of Climate Change Mitigation Initiatives in Laos and Cambodia: Comparing Options and Analysing Obstacles in Local Context (COOL) investigated the implementation of four climate initiatives in Cambodia and Laos. The initiatives were Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), Voluntary Carbon Markets, and Energy and Environment Partnership (EEP).

Dissemination of the research results were organized in Laos and Cambodia in February 2012. The second of the COOL workshops took place on the 28th of February at the Sunway Hotel in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Registration for the event started at 7.30am!! It was organized together by the Climate Change Office of the Ministry of Environment of Cambodia and Finland Futures Research Centre’s team. It gathered a large audience as a bit more than 150 people attended the seminar.

We were also honoured to have welcome remarks from H.E. Mark Gooding, Ambassador of the UK to Cambodia, on behalf of the European Union. Opening remarks were given by H.E. Dr. Mok Mareth, Senior Minister of Environment. There was a real big world feeling to the event with camera’s flashing and professional video-recorders and TV-cameras being moved around the room during the first remarks. We felt like this would probably be the first high-level event for the new logo of FFRC (check it out from the bottom of www.mekong.fi). However, as usual, our honoured guests had other commitments and had to leave after their remarks. Most of the reporters left with them. Luckily the other participants stayed, so I think they were honestly interested in what we had to say.

The first half of the day consisted of presentations on the CoP-17 in Durban: what had been agreed on, what was Cambodia’s position in the negotiations, how EU and Oxfam felt about the outcome, and what will happen next. However, after the lunch break our team finally got to work.

Hanna Kaisti started with an overview of the COOL project, introducing the team, scope of the research, and its objectives. Try Thuon and Otto Bruun started presenting the actual case studies with a look into REDD+ in Cambodia and Laos. The topic seemed to of interest to the audience and many questions followed after their presentation. After that Visa Tuominen (that’s me) was up with a presentation on the Energy and Environment Partnership, which was followed by the last coffee break of the day.

In the last session Hanna Kaisti gave her presentation on Voluntary Carbon Market’s. Even though the day had been long, interesting questions and comments were voiced. A comment from the audience pointed out that some NGOs find themselves in a difficult situation. On the other hand donors are not willing to provide official development assistance (ODA) for getting a certification which can bring in hundreds of thousands of euros for the organisations. But neither private investors are making the investments as they lack the tools to evaluate these kind of projects.

This is not a thoroughly thought idea, only from the top of my head: perhaps financing for these kind of risk-investments, that in the best case scenario mitigate climate change while bringing sustainable development and results for poverty reduction, could be provided by multilateral development finance institutions. They have the sufficient know-how on both climate change mitigation and development cooperation. They also have knowledge on suitable finance mechanisms and funds combined with the capability to make risk-assessments on these kind of projects. And, they have the mandate both for development finance and climate finance. Still, another really interesting question is: how well do climate change mitigation and pro-poor development go hand-in-hand?

But now I’m just getting carried away. Our successful event was given a good end by Mira Käkönen’s presentation on CDM and CDM projects in the region. Overall, I have to say we did quite well. The event also managed to gain visibility in the local press. On the right you can find the story published in The Cambodian Daily. Click on the image to enlarge.

The presentations are available on our website.

China´s Challenging Economic Growth Process: New Insights about Greener Economy

It is good to remember what happened in 2006. The 6^th Plenium of the 16^th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) concluded on October 11, 2006 with the commitment to establish a harmonious society by 2020. The obvious situation analysis in 2006 was that the present major social, economic and political trends are not leading to a harmonious society. Other interpretation is that current trends are not leading Chinese society to this goal fast enough.

Wing Thye Woo is an expert on the East Asian economies, particularly China, Indonesia and Malaysia. Woo has advised the U.S. Treasury Department, the IMF, World Bank and the United Nations. He has specialized in exchange rates, economic growth, regional economic disparity and financial sector development. Recently he presented very interesting situation and foresight analyses for China. Wing Thye Woo (2011) outlined in a recent BOFIT Discussion Paper an interesting analysis about China´s challenging future growth process. He noted that China is like a speeding car facing three potential failures.

Firstly, there is potential hardware failure from the breakdown of an economic mechanism, a development that is analogue to the collapse of the chassis of the car.

Secondly, there is a threat of a software failure from a flaw in governance that creates frequent widespread social disorders that disrupt production economy-wide and discourage private investment. This is a situation similar to a car crash that resulted from a fight among the people inside the speeding car.

Thirdly, there is potential for a power supply failure from hitting either a natural limit or an externally-imposed limit, a situation that is akin to the car running out of gas or to the car smashing into a barrier erected by an outsider agent.

China´s fiscal position can become vaguer because of the repeated recapitalization of the state banks. This can cause hardware failure to become a bigger problem for China. For software failure, outmoded governance structures of China can be problematic. This kind of problems may lead China to social disorder. The biggest source of power supply failure is China´s chronic trade imbalances and the physical constraints posed by China´s rapidly deteriorating natural environment. Both sustainable development and green economy are real big challenges in China. Financial Times reported in 2007 that “about 750 000 people die prematurely in China each year, mainly from air pollution in large cities”.

In July 2004 in Financial Times, Pan Yue, the deputy head of the State Environmental Protection Agency, summed up the situation in China: “If we continue on this path of traditional industrial civilization, there is not chance that we will reach sustainable development. China´s population, resources, environment have already reached the limits of their capacity to cope. Sustainable development and new sources of energy are the only road that we can take”.

Thus China´s “future roadmap towards sustainability” means also much to the Mekong River countries which are developing partnerships with China. As China, the Mekong River countries cannot in no way underestimate the challenges of green economy and renewable energy.

As recent UNEP Report “Towards a Green Economy: Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty Eradication” notes green economy is not any more an exotic discussion topic. It is necessary economic growth strategy to our common better future.  

Sources of information:

Wing Thye Woo (2011) China´s economic growth engine: The likely types of hardware failure, software failure and power supply failure. BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2011. BOFIT – Institute for Economies in Transition. Helsinki: Bank of Finland. Web: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/dp/Pages/dp0811.aspx

Brookings Institution: Wing Thye Woo. Web: http://www.brookings.edu/experts/woow.aspx

UNEP Green Economy Web: http://www.unep.org/greeneconomy/

Know your power!

Mekong Energy and Ecology Network (MEE Net) organised, in cooperation with Finland Futures Research Centre and Chulalongkorn University, an international conference ”Know Your Power: Towards a Participatory Approach for Sustainable Power Development in the Mekong Region” in Bangkok on 18-19 January 2012. The aim of the conference was to examine the interlinkages between energy and development by analysing the multitude of actors, their roles and influence within the power sector. The conference was attended by researchers, NGO representatives, government officials, journalists and donors. The participants came from all the Mekong region countries, as well as from Europe, US and Australia.

Simultaneously and partly overlapping with the energy conference, MEE Net organised together with Thai Broadcasting Service a Mekong Energy Journalist Workshop to train journalists from the region to know and to report about energy issues, and to network with each other, and with conference participants. Journalists from Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, Vietnam and China attended this 5-day workshop.

In the Know Your Power conference there were more than 25 presentations given on different topics relating to energy in the Mekong region. One of them was researcher Chuenchom Greacen who discussed about power sector planning, taking Thailand’s official Power Development Planning (PDP) process as an example. She, together with her colleagues, had developed an alternative PDP for Thailand, “PDP2012” which showed that energy security in Thailand can be maintained without electricity imports, nuclear and new power plans.

Chom’s presentation, as well as all the other presentations can be downloaded from the MEE Net’s website http://www.meenet.org/

Informing and influencing development policy - SUMERNET meeting

The Sustainable Mekong Research Network (SUMERNET) is a programme funded by Swedish government that intends to build a long-term research network that informs and influences policy development on sustainable development issues in the Mekong region. The program was launched in 2005 and it is now in its second phase (2010-2012).

At the time when the program was established there was a generally acknowledged gap between the pro-development perspectives of governments in the Mekong region which were often supported by multilateral donor organisations and fuelled by trade liberalisation, and the perspectives of NGO campaigners, in many cases representing local resistance to specific development projects. Many development agencies voiced their concern that an integrated approach was needed, for a greater diversity of perspectives on development to be incorporated in regional planning and policy. SUMERNET was established to support and promote the use of scientific evidence in policy making, and thus contribute to sustainable development.

SUMERNET held its annual meeting in Bangkok 11-13 January, 2012, where also Finland Futures Research Centre was present, even though it is not formally a member of SUMERNET. The meeting focused on research that is informing and influencing development policy and planning in the Mekong region. In the research partner meeting the researchers, boundary partners and other stakeholders of SUMERNET’s 10 on-going research projects shared information on a number of critical development challenges in the Mekong region. The research projects fall under 5 research themes; Ecosystem services, Trans-boundary issues, Energy & climate change, Poverty and livelihoods, and Urbanisation. These research projects are being implemented by almost 30 national teams, comprising nearly 100 researchers across the Mekong region and Southeast Asia. They are under different stage of implementation but all are to be completed by the end of 2012.

For more details on SUMERNET and the research projects, please visit http://www.sumernet.org/

Focus Group Discussions in Laos

Last winter and spring a series of qualitative focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted in Laos as a part of the INES -project. The aim was to provide data on rural and urban resources and livelihood strategies in Laos that would support climate sensitive and sustainable natural resource policies, food security and poverty reduction. Together 14 FGDs were conducted in 6 provinces and in Vientiane capital (the picture below from Hadkhor village in Luang Prabang province). The criteria for selecting FGD participants required that they are in charge of making daily decisions on energy and food consumption in their households. The FGDs were conducted in Laotian and were translated into English by Bouasavanh Khanthaphat, who also moderated the FGDs.

The questions were divided into 4 categories: livelihood and food security; change in livelihood condition; coping strategies; and household energy management. I’ve had the interesting task to examine the data from FGDs more closely and here are some findings.

Together 10 FGDs were conducted in rural villages (both on- and off-grid) and groups comprised both men and women. The main topics were coping strategies, livelihoods, energy consumption and changes in these. In on-grid villages people have more resilience to changes in the environment, livelihoods and weather patterns. On-grid villages usually have irrigation systems for rice paddies and more electrical appliances to ease the work. On the other hand good connections to other areas provide more earning and consumption possibilities. In recent years rural villages have faced many man-made environmental changes. Dam projects have had a negative effect on fisheries and plantation projects have accelerated deforestation. Non-timber products are more difficult to find these days.

4 FGDs were conducted in Vientiane capital and there were separate groups for both sexes. All the interviewees had migrated from rural areas less than 5 years ago. The most important reasons for migration were better job opportunities, but many interviewees also wanted to see and experience new things and city life. Livelihoods in Vientiane are not as dependent on environment as life in villages. Earned income is spent to food, to gather savings and to help relatives. The life in the city was not found to be as comfortable as expected, but most of the migrants were planning to stay in Vientiane.

Signs of integration.

I arrived in Vientiane a couple of weeks ago. The city greeted me with heavy rain and a thunderstorm. Obviously it was a very heavy thunderstorm as they said in the local newspaper the next day that two elephants had been killed in the outskirts of the city by the lightning (!?). Now the weather has improved though and we haven’t had any rain this week (so far). One can hope the rainy season is over. Wishful thinking?

It was great to come back to Vientiane- this time long term as I’m planning to stay here for the next year and a half. In comparison to other Asian capitals with millions of inhabitants and endless traffic chaos I must say Vientiane is a quite atypical Asian capital with a slow beat and almost a sleepy feeling (although the number of vehicles has increased a lot just during the past few years here as well).

A few signs of slight integration into the Lao way of life are probably 1) wearing a sin which is a traditional skirt Lao women wear and can be found in various colours and embroideries. Yesterday I got my first sin done and it’s a beautiful sin! 2) Walking under an umbrella, not because it’s raining, but because it’s sunny. The 3^rd step for me will be learning the language. On Monday I’ll start a 4 week crash course studying 3 hrs a day, 5 days a week. That will just be the beginning of it but I’m hoping I’ll get some basics. Luckily I have Dorn, Boua and Bouasy, plus night guards to practice with!

Work-wise I’ve so far mostly been fixing all kind of pratical issues related to the office and bureaucracy. Met some people from other organizations working in the same field, and on Wednesday I attended ERIA’s (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia) ”1st East Asian Summit Energy Efficiency Conference” which was hosted by the Ministry of Energy and Mines of Lao PDR. The conference was held at Lao Plaza and there were probably around 200 participants from various countries around East Asia. It was interesting to learn how the East Asian countries with varying levels of economic development have coped with energy efficiency issues. The presentations of the conference elaborated the different energy efficiency policies some East Asian countries had implemented, which I hope other countries can learn from. The conference also draw scenarios on future energy demand in the region, which obviously is increasing due to economic development, as well as pointed out challenges and opportunities for energy efficiency. In most countries energy efficiency was important firstly because of energy security issues and economic development. On 3rd place was climate change. One of the presentations (by UN ESCAP) underlined also the social aspects of energy and energy efficiency and its importance for development issues. Energy efficiency was also seen as an important source of energy as improving energy efficiency will give more energy out of the same amountof primary energy. Lao PDR’s hydro power potential was highlighted during the conference and the country was recognized as “the battery of the region” having substantial reserves and potential to feed the region with renewable energy..

Phob kan mei! (see you soon)

Hanna

Workshop: Climate change from a Southern perspective

Last week a group of us from the FFRC team took part in a workshop organized by Kepa, an NGO that functions as a service base for Finnish development NGOs. Titled “Climate change from a Southern perspective”, the workshop presented the view from the grassroots level of how climate change and the increased amount of climate change projects and funding have affected local NGOs and civil society in the South. These perspectives were delivered to us by people from four of Kepa’s regional offices in Nicaragua, Tanzania, Mozambique and the Mekong region. Besides hearing of the climate policies and actions of these countries, the workshop also presented the concerns of local NGOs and civil society. The diversity of all the countries presented and their differing circumstances make it quite a challenge to generalize results, however, a few themes did stand out.

A cross-cutting concern voiced by all regional offices was the simultaneous challenge and opportunity presented by the increased amount of climate change funds available. On the one hand, there are large amounts of money available from both development banks and bilateral initiatives. Then again, it appears that national climate change policy planning debates are still very top-down, and civil society participation occurs late, if at all. The processes tend to be donor or money-driven, which raises the question of diverting attention away from more pressing issues, for example land grabbing in the Cambodian case. Finally, a large part of the money available is intended for mitigation projects, and especially local advocacy work receives little funding.

Another concern filtered from the various countries was the lack of knowledge at all levels of administration and public awareness. For example, the representatives from Tanzania and Mozambique told us several answers to the question “What is climate change?”, ranging from ideas about drought and floods to confusion with ozone depletion. The confusion over the causes and consequences of climate change is heightened by the lack of reliable data. In many cases, climate change seems to have become an umbrella term under which to pinpoint all local environmental problems.

Despite all the concerns voiced, there arose possibilities for local NGOs and civil society. Since a large part of climate finance projects are still at an initial level, the opportunities for influencing their direction still exist. However, many voiced concerns that local civil society would merely be used to legitimize government policies or implement projects as advised by international donors.

Specifically from the Mekong region, we heard the insights of Timo Kuronen from Kepa’s regional office in Bangkok. Timo commented on the difficulty to find information on climate change funding in the region. Certainly the rapidly increasing amount of funds, especially to Clean Development Mechanism projects in Thailand and Vietnam, affect this. Otherwise the civil society concerns voiced by Timo differed greatly based on national circumstances. For example, Cambodian NGOs were mainly concerned about climate change projects diverting attention and funds away from more pressing issues. In Thailand, the active discussions on climate justice by the Thai Working Group on Climate Justice (TCJ) succeeded in pushing local mitigation effects into the agenda of the Thailand’s National Master Plan on Climate Change (2010-2019).

On the whole the workshop gave us at FFRC an overview of what is currently happening and how local civil societies are reacting. Based on the active questions and discussions, I’m sure we all left with new information and a will to attend more events like this.

A Busy Maytiane Week

Two seminars were arranged in Vientiane with the cooperation of Finland Futures Research Centre and Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) of Lao PDR, within the last week of May 2011. First one was the final FREPLA (Future Economy and Policies of Laos 2020) seminar, and it was followed by the kick-off workshop of INES, Interlinkages Between Energy and Livelihoods. I and the rest of the FFRC team present had the pleasure to take part in both, even though my personal contribution has been a great deal bigger for the INES project.

The FREPLA seminar was the fifth and the final to be held. Besides the FFRC staff, the participants attended were mainly government officials. Topics covered were diverse: from indicators of sustainable development to energy power plants and demand predictions. The future-orientated issues, forecasts and plans, seemed to interest the most and raise a fair amount of discussion.

INES workshop was the first one of the project. The participants represented various departments on provincial level. An interesting twist in the workshop was the fact that every presentation, question and comment was simultaneously translated into either Lao or English, depending on the language of the original speaker. Luckily, we were blessed with the exact right person for the job (many thanks to Dorn!), and the conversation flew smoothly.

A number of very important issues were taken up and discussed. Importance of reliable data availability was recognized. Consequently, organizing and funding continuous, systematic data collection was seen as a key priority in terms of future planning and preparing. Some practical means for the reduction of energy consumption were also suggested. The need for training for energy and population modeling was brought up several times which, in fact, happens to be the next step of the project.

In addition to the organisers and participants, the two seminars attracted the local press. Vientiane Times wrote two articles, one of each assembly, on top of which a picture of Jyrki Luukkanen handing out the laptops to the INES participants was published separately. Evidence of the latter, originally published on the 1st of June 2011, is attached below. We also made it to the news of Lao National Television! Unfortunately though, everyone in our team missed the big show on-air.

All in all, our team and all our local partners had a busy but rewarding week in Vientiane this May. In order to get a deeper insight on the topics, all the presentations can be viewed and downloaded at Publications - Powerpoint Presentations on our Mekong-website.

Setting up the office in Vientiane

As Finland Futures Research Centre opened the office in the capital of Laos, Vientiane, I had the honor to be the one setting up all the practical matters in the house. The house is used for office and living purposes and there will always be staff in the house. I arrived to the city 30th of March and was ready to pick up the keys for the office next day. It is my first time in Laos, and the first evening already I really liked the city. Streets were full of street vendors, steam rising from the pots, Lao language echoing in my ears, warm wind from the Mekong – they all infiltrated into my mind. Calm, but at the same time lively atmosphere fascinated me! Quite often the first impression is the one that counts and that happened to me as well – I still feel the same way! During the first two days I also remember thinking that I could not see any rats on the streets, and because of that I considered the city to be very exceptional Asian city in this sense. Very little I knew that time.

First days I was busy to shop the articles we needed for living in the house, such as basic things like sheets, towels and kitchen utilities. Shopping in a new city is always time consuming but fun! Quickly I got to know these helpful and friendly people of Laos. As an example, a very helpful worker in the mall unpacked and set up the whole tent-like mosquito net for us - just to see the size of it - and eventually it appeared to be too small for our office beds. It felt almost a crime not to buy it as he made such a hard work with presenting it for us. I learned quite soon also the most important sentence in here: “baw pen nyang”; “It is ok”, or “Never mind”. I was also amazed about the supply of the goods – I did not expect it to be so easy to get the things we had listed in Finland.

After staying a couple of days in the house, I found out that in addition to me and my colleague, there were others living in the house as well. Rats. I did not see them on the streets – maybe because they were all living in the house with me! One morning a rat was climbing up the stairs when I was coming downstairs. I think we both got equally frightened – and maybe the rat heard Finnish swore words for the first time in its life! Later I and my colleague met a rat also in the kitchen – poor rat was so confused that it ran first towards me and then my colleague – causing of course a lot of jumping and screaming in the kitchen. After these a couple of involuntary meetings, I decided to offer poisonous dinner for those little animals. It was a success –they seemed to enjoy the meal I prepared! I stayed tuned for the results. I knew the disadvantages of the poison, as when using it, I could not be in charge of the recycling process of the remains. So, as I was afraid of, it turned out that the rats were killed inside the walls, and I think it is easy for you to imagine the smell of a rotten rat body in almost +40C degrees heat. Luckily the worms are very active in here, so the smell of the house was gone in a few days. So, for now, I declare the Finland Futures Research Centre office in Vientiane as a rat-free area! And at the same time I am being a bit afraid that they will return…

World Bank Newsletter: Powering the People of Cambodia

The World Bank has produced a newsletter on its energy projects in Cambodia: with headlines such as Power to People. The newsletter from December 2010 can be downloaded here. It offers interesting reading on the achievements and targets of World Bank’s rural electrification programs in Cambodia. Interestingly the main stage seems to be set for grid extensions and grid connections whereas the off-grid elements and small-scale renewable energy are not receiving much attention.

World Bank supported Rural Electrification Fund seem to have performed well in its new connection program in terms of reaching the targets. At the same time the off-grid components appear to be lacking behind. But these aspects are not explored in the newsletter. Both the grant assistance for solar companies and for the small hydropower and biomass have been almost complete failures. Last year the solar program was revised and Cambodia started to follow Laos model on solar home systems i.e. a bulk purchase model with a several years payment scheme for the users. The ambitious plan is to have 12 000 installments by January 2012.

The slow progress on sustainable renewable energy solutions is unfortunate as Cambodia is truly at the crossroads. The current situation of low electrification and lack of more traditional centralized gird systems could offer a chance for “leapfrogging”. This would require ambitious and serious thinking of how to enable and empower small and very small power producers. A promising base for this direction has been laid by a report Powering 21st Century Cambodia with Decentralized Generation authored by Grynne Ryder.

Under our DREAM-project we continue to assess the reasons for failures and success of renewable energy projects in Cambodia and Laos.